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As Football
Fanatics, we take our fantasy games very seriously here at
Fantistics. Our publisher is a Statistician who has be
computing fantasy projections and valuation models for over
15 years. Did you realize that the vast majority of National
Contest winners, are actuaries or accountants? Yes, the guys
with the glasses and pen sleeves in their shirts!...incidentally
quite a few of them are returning Fantistics subscribers.
Fantasy Football
(along with the other sports) is both a knowledge and a numbers (statistics) game. He
who solves the "best fit" formula on draft day usually
takes the prize, or is at least competitive throughout the
season....and that's our goal, to make you competitive or give you
that extra edge that brings you over the
top. |
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Our 50+ years of
player data allows us to not only produce respectable
projections year in and year out, but it also allows you to dispel
certain myths that have lead many fantasy managers astray. In
fantasy sports it's not the quantity of information, it's the
quality that counts.
Did you realize
that on average 25% of the Top Twenty Quarterbacks, were within
20% of their previous season fantasy stats? ...and contrary to
popular belief, 80% of the top 10 kickers are within 30% of their previous
season stats. |
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Sure our
projections will help you, but its Not
who to draft...it's How to draft.
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The Fantistics draft
day strategy has been described as the definitive concept
to winning on draft day. Value Above Mean (VAM)
is a computation that measures a players' fantasy worth versus others at
their respective position/s. In other words, what we do is take the average fantasy values
for the typical number of fantasy starters at each position. This average serves as the
standard that we compare all others at that particular position by.
To further the effectiveness of this concept, based on our
research, we assign probabilities based on the predictability of
the position categories. In a perfect world, we
compared this strategy against "simulation owners" who were set to draft
according to total fantasy points (TFP), and found VAM to be 22-30%
more effective tool than just drafting by total projected points. VAM is
most effective during the early rounds of the draft as evidenced by the graph below.
(We ran 1,000 simulations, basing the incremental gain on the VAM strategy versus
employing a straight points drafting methodology through each draft pick.) |
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We have successfully used and recommended this
statistical concept (VAM) for over five years. In 1998, we finally tested the concept
using a statistical software package (MATLAB),
and found it to be the best overall drafting and trading strategy.
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Fantistics
is credited as being the first group to apply the relative value
concept (our concept of
VAM) to
fantasy sports drafting. |
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After the top 80-90 players are selected, you
should start considering your needs and the total projected points. As you can see from
the chart above, the incremental gain starts to diminish rapidly at this point.
Another point to consider is that VAM would
work perfectly if we lived in a vacuum and our projected points turned out to be 100%
accurate...of course we don't and they're not going to be. So before you start to
use our sortable VAM rankings and cheat sheets, there are a few
tips in our subscriber section that will interest you.
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Want
to see some samples of what Fantistics Football Subscribers will have access to this
season? click here... |
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VAM
sortable databases and scoring systems along with the traditional fantasy rankings can be
found exclusively at Fantistics Insider Football. Click here to Subscribe today! |
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Fantistics Football,
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