Table of Contents

(the link above only applies to those who have not purchased the 2013 software, and are using the unregistered version of the software which comes with a incomplete set of player stats)

    Using The Cheatsheets (Draft Ranking Lists)

www.Insiderfootball.com 

 Setup Your Team & League Parameters:  (Located on  the Menu Bar Settings )

League: Edit League Settings

League Info | Positions

Most leagues require you to draft a minimum amount of players by position, the software will accommodate this. Enter the number of players that you would like to draft at each position, include starters only at each position.  If your league allows "Flex Players", you can select the right combination that fits your league (as an example if your league allows for 2 flex players from any of the RB/QB/WR positions, you would select that combination from the drop down box and enter a 2 in the space immediately proceeding your selection.)

If you do not use a position, such as individual defensive players, then enter a Zero (0) in the appropriate corresponding cell.

Scoring Characteristics of each Position

Exhibit B: Bucket Scoring Setup (see highlighted area for explanation)

The examples above are for Passing Yards, you will find these flexible scoring areas in many of the setup screens. Although the categories are different, the setup is similar in concept to the screens above.

Expected Auction Value (EAV) is an algorithm developed to mimic the non linear decline in auction prices during the span of a draft. Its primary function is to aid those who participate in an auction draft. For more on EAV, click here

Budget Allocation Split: Again for auction leagues, some fantasy GMs like to specify the amount they believe the league will spend on the various positions. We've set the default Splits based on the Typical 12 team league (1 point for 10 yards rush/receiving, 1 point for 20 yards passing, 6 points for rushing/receiving TD, 4 points for passing TD). The result of this split will shift the EAV$ for each player. If you feel that the EAV results for the players are unreasonable, you can manually change the allocation of the budget (check box) to better quit your taste. The only limitation: the Total must equal 100%.

Max Player $ Value: This area is is being phased out, as the Budget Allocation Split overrides this function. Ignore this section.

Settings | Program Settings:

Display Options | Draft Option: Hide Drafted Players (only option) after selected to roster (right mouse click on any player and selecting him to a team roster).

Display Options |  Cheatsheet Display - We suggest that you use Fantasy Points (FP) in Draft style leagues, and Expected Auction Value ($EAV) in Auction type drafts.

Display Options | Rank Based on - We suggest that you use Fantasy Points (FP) in Draft style leagues, and Expected Auction Value ($EAV) in Auction type drafts.

Display Options | Program Settings: After drafting a player view to enter cost, should only be selected in Auction Style leagues.

Display Options | Program Settings: Color Cheatsheets should be selected if you have a color printer, as it will show player quality in colored tiers (the darker color the better the player).

Creating Multiple Teams for different Leagues: 

Leagues (Located on  the Top Menu Bar Leagues )

Select Different League / Create New League: Enter your new team name and setup your league parameters to your needs.

Viewing the Fantistics Projections 

Projections  (Located on the main screen)

Here is where you will find all of the Fantistics Football Player Projections (registered users only) for the upcoming season. The projections are sorted by Fantasy Points (FP) and can be sorted as per your desire (see Sorting). Each of the positions are located in separate "sheets", viewable by clicking (left mouse button) on the tabs located in the top section corner of the screen.  These projections are updated throughout the preseason for registered users, so be sure to check for web updates on a frequent basis (see Web Update).

Sorting the Fantistics Projections 

Sorting

Sorting the projections by your desirable criteria can be done by clicking (left mouse button) on the header line showing the stat category you are interested in. For instance if you want to sort by Rushing Yards on the RunningBack page,  click "left mouse button" on the (Rush) cell.

Stat Categories (To Select to View: Right Mouse click on the Stat Row in the Software)

Locking out "Keeper players" or players not included in your Draft

If your league allows you to keep players from year to year, select the player to a roster (see above) and from the rosters menu, right click on the player to engage him as a keeper. This will also allow you to run unlimited mock drafts without having to re-enter keeper players.

Updating your Fantistics Preseason Projections (Must be online)

Web Update (Located on the Menu Bar OnLine | Web Update )

Our goal is to not only provide you with the best projections but also provide you with the most up to date fantasy projections found anywhere! As we get closer to the season you will find that the fantasy projections are updated on a daily basis. Early projections may change considerably for younger players as their playing time may be dependant on the events of training camps. We recommend that you use our web update feature before your draft.

Open up the Web Update popup window and enter your Fantistics Football ID and password, and click the check box (which will save your ID and password for future uses). Now click on the "Check for Update" button (you must be connected to the internet), if a new version of the projections database exists, you will be notified in the pop up window, and the software will being to update. After the software downloads (see progress bar on the screen)  it's a good idea to close all the windows that are open within the program.

As a registered user, you can find the latest date of the database that you are using by viewing the lower left hand corner of the program.

Important: You must enter your ID and Password that was assigned by you when you purchased the Fantistics Football package, this is the only way to receive the latest version of the projections. If you forgot/lost your ID & password, click here to enter your email into our automated password system, it will be sent to you via email (you must be connected to the internet to use this option).

Draft Section: Rosters

Player Roster

League Draft Roster (Grid of Fantasy Teams)- Select a player to the rosters grid in one of the following manners: From any of the following pages/tabs (Projections, Top 100 VAM, or Search Pages) you can right mouse click a player to a team.

Depending on your League Setup (see Setting your Team & League Parameters), you can select players to a roster in:

• Draft Order (Serpentine Setup) - The current draft slot team will be listed at the top of the popup window (right mouse click on a player's name)
• Random Selection (Non-Serpentine Setup) - Select a player to any fantasy team in no particular order (right mouse click on a player's name)
• Auction Style -  For those who play in a league that uses an auction system, after you select a player to a team, another popup should appear with an option to enter a auction value. If the option to enter an auction value does not appear, you can activate this option on by selecting the File|Settings|View Popup to Specify Cost Option located in the toolbar at the top of the program.

As players are selected their names as well as their statistics will be removed from the viewable player universe.

You have the ability to choose the columns that you would like to see during your draft on the rosters page. You can select the columns (Fantasy Points, Cost, Bye) you would like to see in the League Draft Roster (see below).

Printable Report :After your draft is complete you can print your league draft.

** When you begin propagating the rosters section, please be aware that it will change the Projections as well as the cheat sheet pages as players are selected to various teams and are no longer available in the player universe.

***When you are ready to draft your team, be very sure that you have the correct setup prior to selecting players, as saving any changes in the setup section can sometimes clear the rosters.

#Drafted: The number of players selected, in brackets are the reserves.

#Needed: The number of players needed, in brackets are the reserves.

FP: Total Fantasy Points for each team

Player Search

Mock Draft Module  Practice your drafting Skills

Get your Mock on...this module is undoubtedly the most addicting fantasy tools we've ever created! For the first time fantasy GMs can simulate their fantasy draft before draft day using their specific scoring rules. More importantly you'll be able select players at your own pace, instantly seeing the scoring ramifications of the decisions you make, test the Fantistics Draft Strategy (VAM) and valuations (FP - Fantasy Points), while honing your drafting skills....and you won't have to spend 3 hours doing it (pause your draft at any time or just walk away).

The new Mock Draft module, within the Fantistics Player Projections program, allows fantasy GMs to practice drafting skills using our recommended VAM draft strategy. The opponents' (automated computer selectors) will be using ADP. ADP or Average Draft Position represents an accumulation of fantasy drafts throughout the fantasy football community. We collect this information every week during training camps and update ADP accordingly. The Mock Draft module also allows us to use the "true" VAM draft strategy, were we recommend switching to player valuation (FP - Fantasy Points) after the first 90-100 selections of your draft. With this mock draft feature you are free to decide when you would like to switch from the VAM strategy or not switch (if you choose.)

Other draft strategy options you can select as your strategy include Fantasy Points (if fantasy points is selected in Setup area) or ADP (In most cases you will experience that our VAM strategy produces the most optimal results.)

Options include 1. Drafting starting positions before reserves (recommended), and 2. Having the program stop before your selection (allowing you to make selections, instead of the selected automated strategy).

We recommend that you open the Rosters tab and the Draft Summary tab, prior to running your mock draft. Having these windows open will allow you to toggle between the screens, allowing you to see how your team is shaping up verses your opponents, and more importantly: how your team is accumulating fantasy points or Roto points verses the competition (see Draft Summary).

If you have selected Keeper players from within the Setup | Draft Order area, then these keepers will not be removed when you clear the mock draft results from the Mock Draft area. The only way to clear these keepers is from the Setup | Draft Order area.

Auction Mock Draft Simulation:

Although VAM is the definitive draft methodology recommended for Serpentine/non auction drafts, Auction drafts are heavily influenced by the difference between the actual auction price and the expected auction value.  Obviously, there is no way to capture this through a simulation. However, budget allocation strategies can be simulated.” VAM Budget” allows you to test different spending methods for your team while adhering to the league budget. If for example you would like to avoid a high/low  spending strategy, you can set the simulation to draft the 10-12^th listed player according to VAM for the first 80 or so players. This will allow your team to take a more balanced approach.

Our suggested draft order based on your league scoring for the top 100 players sorted by VAM.

Players can be selected directly from the Draft Advisor list and placed on a roster (either by using the right mouse button or drop and dragging). As players are selected the next best available players move up the list.

VAM: We pride ourselves with not necessarily picking the right guy, but with picking the right strategy. After we compute our projections for the upcoming season, the software derives the VAM ranking list using mathematical means to produce the best outcome. Not only does the software consider position scarcity (which is specific to you league and scoring), but it also considers the probability of predictability related to each position (see Draft Research). While the fantasy community has caught up with the basic understanding of the position scarcity theory (RBs ranked highly), they haven't quantified it, which continues to leave there fate based on luck. Our draft strategy is predicated on the theory of probability and given enough of a sample size, the theory flat out kicks butt. Consider the theory behind one of the riches gold mines in America: the Gambling Casinos. Sure once and a while, someone comes out winning, but given enough action, the Casinos win overall...the Theory of Probability. That's not to say that you will not finish the season with a uncompetitive team, even if the theory was 99% valid, there is always a chance that the number of players selected (sample size) was not large enough and you are unfortunate enough to draft all the guys that have a disappointing or injury plagued seasons...but again, using the strategy the odds are in your favor...and that really is the best anyone can hope for.  Stick with the VAM ranking list through the first 80-100 selections of your draft, if you play in a conventional league, ignore the Kickers, Tight Ends and Defenses until the later rounds. Using the VAM ranking you'll likely miss out on a few of the upper end Wide Receivers (as some may select these guys too early in your draft), but that's ok and part of the strategy, as receivers have a poor correlation of predictability and many mid level receivers step up year after year. Additionally unheralded Wide Receivers, Tight Ends, Kickers, and Defenses are almost always available during the season in the free agent market (and you'll know about these guys from us). How often do quality running backs and quarterbacks who went undrafted produce big numbers? Very infrequently...unless an injury happens to one of the starters. If you have open reserve slots, make sure that they are filled up with running backs and maybe a quarterback or two...as you can never have enough of these high commodity guys.

Average Draft Position (ADP) - We update the projections software throughout the preseason with a new indicator called Average Draft Position (ADP). ADP will represent an accumulation of drafts throughout the fantasy football community. The average draft slot where the NFL players are selected will then be converted to your specific league setting. Thus if your league for instance has 8 teams, the NFL player drafted 9th nationally would appear as 2.01 in your software (2.01 represents 1st slot of the second round). 

Since disadvantaged fantasy football GMs use generic cheat sheets, it's an advantage to not only have rankings that are tailored to your league, but also to know the sentiment of the general fantasy community. Using this new tool you'll be able to ascertain the possible mindset of those around you. One possible use of ADP is delaying the drafting of a player who we hold in higher esteem until a later round. You can view the cheatsheet with their ADP ranking by selecting Setup|Edit League Settings|Cheatsheet Display Option: ADP

Expected Auction Value (EAV) is an algorithm developed to mimic the non linear decline in auction prices during the span of a fantasy draft. Its primary function is to aid those who participate in an auction draft.

Draft Section: Draft Summary

Detailed Draft Totals also showing the accumulated team totals for your leagues scoring categories.

The Roto Column/Section is designed for leagues where player stats are combined and compared verses other team owners and point values are given according to a ranking system.

Using The Cheatsheets (Draft Ranking Lists)

 CheatSheets (Located on the Menu Bar Reporting | Cheatsheets)

The Cheatsheets or Draft Rankings lists are the pages that many of you will be using on your drafting day. The player names are organized by their primary expected position for the upcoming season. 

To the left of the players name is a ranking by position, to the immediate right is his current team followed by the player's off week (Bye week, ie.  B5 = Week 5) and the computed fantasy point  value according to your setup parameters. 

The last column of the cheatsheet is a ranking according to our recommended draft strategy VAM, (click here for more on VAM).

Lastly you will notice that some players are Zeroed out the cheatsheet, this does not mean that they will not produce any value, it just means that they will not likely be drafted based on your league parameters that you have setup (if you have a limited number of roster spots the players above these guys will get drafted first, making it unlikely that they will be drafted).

 Printing The Cheatsheets (or the projections)

 Printing (Located on the Apple Program Menu Bar File | Print )

Printing the Cheatsheets is simple All that is necessary is for you to have the cheatsheets window active, and then click on the Apple Program Menu Bar File | Print

Some may also choose to print the projections, which be warned may be as long as 20-25 pages. To print the projections, just have the projections window active "left button mouse" click.

If you have a color printer, the cheatsheet will print a color coded cheat sheet. This color coding is based on player tiers. See Draft Advisory Player Tiers for more information on how the tiers work.

Export the Cheat-sheets to Excel

Exporting the cheat sheets to excel is currently disabled for the mac product, but we're working on this.

Understanding the Intelligence Data in the top section of the Projections Page

The Graphical Charts: Roll over a player stat and see his 4 year and 2006 2nd half history and projection in the upper left hand corner of the projections screen. These graphic charts give you an easy view of how the player compares against his peers (green bars), as their averages are also charted (based on the number of starters for each team at each position). If you use the program during your draft, deciding between players could be as easy as a roll of the mouse. Seeing an established player's key categories on a decline or rise could be as powerful as any statistical indicator.  Use these charts as an indication tool when evaluating the risk of a player. The VAM Chart measures the value of a player when compared to the overall value of all the player positions. So even though a player, such as a kicker, is atop in his position, his overall value may be below the VAM baseline. (Tip: To view different player history use the tab or the mouse to select new players in the projections section)

Exporting The Projections to Excel (currently not available, but may be in future release )

Good Luck in your Draft!

  The Fantistics Projections (Written by Fantistics Statistician Anthony A. Perri)

As Football Fanatics, we take our fantasy games very seriously here at Fantistics. Our publisher is a Statistician who has be computing fantasy projections and valuation models for over 15 years. Did you realize that the vast majority of National Contest winners, are actuaries or accountants? Yes, the guys with the glasses and pen sleeves in their shirts!...incidentally quite a few of them are returning Fantistics subscribers. 

Fantasy Football (along with the other sports) is both a knowledge and a numbers (statistics) game. He who solves the "best fit" formula on draft day usually takes the prize, or is at least competitive throughout the season....and that's our goal, to make you competitive or give you that extra edge that brings you over the top.      

Our 50+ years of player data allows us to not only produce respectable projections year in and year out, but it also allows you to dispel certain myths that have lead many fantasy managers astray. In fantasy sports it's not the quantity of information, it's the quality that counts. 

Did you realize that on average 25% of the Top Twenty Quarterbacks, were within 20% of their previous season fantasy stats? ...and contrary to popular belief, 80% of the top 10 kickers are within 30% of their previous season stats.  

The Fantistics draft day strategy has been described as the definitive concept to winning on draft day. Value Above Mean (VAM)  is a computation that measures a players' fantasy worth versus others at their respective position/s. In other words, what we do is take the average fantasy values for the typical number of fantasy starters at each position. This average serves as the standard that we compare all others at that particular position by. To further the effectiveness of this concept, based on our research, we assign probabilities based on the predictability of the position categories. In a perfect world, we compared this strategy against "simulation owners" who were set to draft according to total fantasy points (TFP), and found VAM to be  22-30% more effective tool than just drafting by total projected points. VAM is most effective during the early rounds of the draft as evidenced by the graph below. (We ran 1,000 simulations, basing the incremental gain on the VAM strategy versus employing a straight points drafting methodology through each draft pick.)

We have successfully used and recommended this statistical concept (VAM) for over five years. In 1998, we finally tested the concept using a statistical software package (MATLAB), and found it to be the best overall drafting and trading strategy. 

The concept of VAM was later upgraded to assign a probability to each position, which has further fine tuned the expected results.

Fantistics is credited as being the first group to apply the relative value concept (our concept of VAM) to fantasy sports drafting. 

After the top 80-90 players are selected, you should start considering your needs and the total projected points. As you can see from the chart above, the incremental gain starts to diminish rapidly at this point.

Another point to consider is that VAM would work perfectly if we lived in a vacuum and our projected points turned out to be 100% accurate...of course we don't and they're not going to be. So before you start to use our sortable VAM rankings and cheat sheets, there are a few tips in our subscriber section that will interest you.

Visit the membership area for more Draft Day tools and year long analysis: http://www.fantistics.com/football00/

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