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Looking Back at our Year 2000 Projections

As one of our projections rituals, we look back to our prior year projections to see how our valuation formula fared. Proudly,Year 2000 was one of our best to date. Our statistical program was not only able to spot many career season downturns & progressing players, but was also able to weed out the talent among the 1st year players based on their relevant minor league stats.

We "stuck our necks out" prior to 2000 stating in several national publications that Pitcher Kevin Millwood (ATL) would be worth significantly less of what he was valued in 1999, and we were right. The basis of our prognostication was the number of innings he labored the prior season, including the playoffs, he pitched over 60 innings more in 1999 than he ever had in his career (35% more than 1998) - The result was a very disappointing season in 2000. Based on our research, 5 out of 7 pitchers who pitch >20% more innings in a season than ever before, have a disappointing season. We have the 2001 candidates projected in our subscriber section, along with the effects of the new "high" strike-zone in 2001.

Yes we were wrong on a some players in 2000, we certainly do not possess a crystal ball, but the number of correct projections on the un-obvious fantasy players was truly inspiring for us. Each year we continue to tweak of projections model which is a compilation of 50 years of statistical data, back-tested to find the optimal fantasy projections formula. Not withstanding the Jose Lima's of 2000, below we present some of our projections highlights from last season. We look forward to having you join us this season.

Anthony A. Perri - Founder, Lead Statistician

Fantistics.com - InsiderBaseball.com

....Comeback Players
Year	L	PLAYER	TM	G	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	Slug	Roto $
1999	AL	Thomas, F.	ChA	135	486	74	15	77	3	0.305	0.471	$16
Projection		Thomas, F.	ChA	153	590	105	29	102	3	0.313	0.544	$27
2000	AL	Thomas, F.	ChA	159	582	115	43	143	1	0.328	0.625	$31
....Dismissing the injury plagued seasons
Year	L	PLAYER	TM	G	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	Slug	Roto $
1999	AL	Edmonds, J.	Ana	55	204	34	5	23	5	0.250	0.426	$2
Projection		Edmonds, J.	StL	142	539	118	21	92	17	0.300	0.500	$24
2000	NL	Edmonds, J.	StL	152	525	129	42	108	10	0.295	0.583	$29
....Evaluating the comebacks from a serious illness
Year	L	PLAYER	TM	G	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	Slug	Roto $
Projection		Galarraga,A.	Atl	141	491	72	31	92	4	0.274	0.515	$18
2000	NL	Galarraga, A.	Atl	141	494	67	28	100	3	0.302	0.526	$16
....Targeting the Career Season players
Year	L	PLAYER	TM	G	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	Slug	Roto $
1999	AL	Palmeiro, R.	Tex	158	565	96	47	148	2	0.324	0.630	$37
Projection		Palmeiro, R.	Tex	152	542	99	42	124	2	0.295	0.581	$22
2000	AL	Palmeiro, R.	Tex	158	565	102	39	120	2	0.288	0.558	$22

Year	L	PLAYER	TM	G	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	Slug	Roto $
1999	AL	Anderson, B.	Bal	150	564	109	24	81	36	0.282	0.477	$29
Projection		Anderson, B.	Bal	130	487	88	22	65	29	0.264	0.459	$14
2000	AL	Anderson, B.	Bal	141	506	89	19	50	16	0.257	0.421	$13

.... Projecting the "So Your Leaving Coors Field Effect"
Year	L	PLAYER	TM	G	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	Slug	Roto $
1999	NL	Bichette, D.	Col	151	593	104	34	133	6	0.298	0.541	$28
Projection		Bichette, D.	Bos	145	569	92	26	105	5	0.286	0.489	$20
2000	AL	Bichette, D.	Bos	155	575	80	23	90	5	0.294	0.477	$21

....Sure we were wrong also
Year	L	PLAYER	TM	G	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	Slug	Roto $
1999	AL	Griffey Jr.,	Sea	160	606	123	48	134	24	0.285	0.576	$35
Projection		Griffey Jr.,K	Cin	154	582	122	53	133	24	0.297	0.622	$36
2000	NL	Griffey Jr.,	Cin	145	520	100	40	118	6	0.271	0.556	$23
....and sometimes really wrong
Year	L	PLAYER	TM	G	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	Slug	Roto $
1999	AL	Belle, A.	Bal	161	610	108	37	117	17	0.297	0.541	$35
Projection		Belle, A.	Bal	155	586	109	41	122	18	0.311	0.586	$32
2000	AL	Belle, A.	Bal	141	559	71	23	103	0	0.281	0.474	$11
.....Projecting the Young Breakout Players
Year	L	PLAYER	TM	G	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	Slug	Roto $
1999	AL	Tejada, M.	Oak	159	593	93	21	84	8	0.251	0.427	$9
Projection		Tejada, M.	Oak	153	569	102	23	92	9	0.267	0.468	$20
2000	AL	Tejada, M.	Oak	160	607	105	30	115	6	0.275	0.479	$24
.....Even more than we expected
Year	L	PLAYER	TM	G	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	Slug	Roto $
1999	AL	Glaus, T.	Ana	154	551	85	29	79	5	0.240	0.450	$10
Projection		Glaus, T.	Ana	148	582	101	35	107	4	0.270	0.511	$22
2000	AL	Glaus, T.	Ana	159	563	120	47	102	14	0.284	0.604	$31
.....sometimes they played to our projections
Year	L	PLAYER	TM	G	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	Slug	Roto $
1999	NL	Meluskey, M.	Hou	10	33	4	1	3	1	0.212	0.333	$0
Projection		Meluskey,M.	Hou	101	371	47	12	46	2	0.286	0.444	$6
2000	NL	Meluskey, M.	Hou	117	337	47	14	69	1	0.300	0.487	$6
.....almost exactly
Year	L	PLAYER	TM	G	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	Slug	Roto $
1999	AL	Chavez, E.	Oak	115	356	47	13	50	1	0.247	0.427	$3
Projection		Chavez, E.	Oak	144	539	78	22	83	2	0.276	0.471	$10
2000	AL	Chavez, E.	Oak	153	501	89	26	86	2	0.277	0.495	$14
.....more
Year	L	PLAYER	TM	G	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	Slug	Roto $
1999	NL	Lowell, M.	Fla	97	308	32	12	47	0	0.253	0.419	$2
Projection		Lowell, M.	Fla	156	578	71	26	95	7	0.291	0.476	$13
2000	NL	Lowell, M.	Fla	140	508	73	22	91	4	0.270	0.474	$12
.....still more
Year	L	PLAYER	TM	G	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	Slug	Roto $
1999	NL	Kennedy, A.	StL	33	102	12	1	16	0	0.255	0.402	$0
Projection		Kennedy, A.	Ana	136	500	64	13	62	21	0.282	0.436	$9
2000	AL	Kennedy, A.	Ana	156	598	82	9	72	22	0.266	0.403	$10
.....ok enough, bring on the Pitchers
Year	L	PLAYER	TM	G	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	Slug	Roto $
1999	AL	Quinn, M.	KC	17	60	11	6	18	1	0.333	0.733	$1
Projection		Quinn, M.	KC	124	476	68	23	77	8	0.294	0.494	$11
2000	AL	Quinn, M.	KC	135	500	76	20	78	5	0.294	0.488	$9

...How changes in the strikezone can effect a season
Year	L	PLAYER	TM	G	INN	W	L	S	ERA	HR	K	WHIP	Roto $
1999	NL	Maddux, G.	Atl	33	219	19	9	0	3.57	16	136	1.35	$14
Projection		Maddux,G.	Atl	35	230	20	9	0	3.05	17	161	1.22	$29
2000	NL	Maddux, G.	Atl	35	249	19	9	0	3.00	19	190	1.07	$37
....Not always right but can spot the trend
Year	L	PLAYER	TM	G	INN	W	L	S	ERA	HR	K	WHIP	Roto $
1999	NL	Leiter, A.	NYN	32	213	13	12	0	4.23	19	162	1.42	$15
Projection		Leiter,A.	NYN	35	234	16	11	0	3.88	18	184	1.38	$19
2000	NL	Leiter, A.	NYN	31	208	16	8	0	3.20	19	200	1.21	$31
....key prior year stats always tell the tale
Year	L	PLAYER	TM	G	INN	W	L	S	ERA	HR	K	WHIP	Roto $
1999	NL	Reed, R.	NYN	26	149	11	5	0	4.59	23	104	1.41	$3
Projection		Reed,R.	NYN	31	179	11	5	0	3.87	23	131	1.24	$18
2000	NL	Reed, R.	NYN	30	184	11	5	0	4.11	28	121	1.23	$15
....ability to sense the Comeback Seasons
Year	L	PLAYER	TM	G	INN	W	L	S	ERA	HR	K	WHIP	Roto $
1999	AL	Clemens, R.	NYA	30	187	14	10	0	4.62	20	163	1.47	$9
Projection		Clemens,R.	NYA	33	206	15	11	0	3.37	22	201	1.24	$24
2000	AL	Clemens, R.	NYA	32	204	13	8	0	3.70	26	188	1.31	$21
....Leaving Coors Field works both ways
Year	L	PLAYER	TM	G	INN	W	L	S	ERA	HR	K	WHIP	Roto $
1999	NL	Kile, D.	Col	32	190	8	13	0	6.62	33	116	1.76	$1
Projection		Kile,D.	StL	35	209	14	11	0	4.77	27	164	1.44	$10
2000	NL	Kile, D.	StL	34	232	20	9	0	3.92	33	192	1.18	$31
...Aughh those Bounce Back Seasons
Year	L	PLAYER	TM	G	INN	W	L	S	ERA	HR	K	WHIP	Roto $
1999	NL	Nen, R.	SF	72	72	3	8	37	3.99	8	77	1.47	$12
Projection		Nen,R.	SF	76	76	6	3	39	2.73	8	88	1.21	$26
2000	NL	Nen, R.	SF	68	66	4	3	41	1.50	4	92	0.85	$39
....We make mistakes also
Year	L	PLAYER	TM	G	INN	W	L	S	ERA	HR	K	WHIP	Roto $
1999	AL	Martinez, R.	LA	4	20	2	1	0	3.12	2	15	1.09	$1
Projection		Martinez,R.	LA	34	227	17	11	0	3.73	22	178	1.26	$24
2000	AL	Martinez, R.	LA	27	127	10	8	0	6.16	16	89	1.65	$4
....Ouch what happened here!
Year	L	PLAYER	TM	G	INN	W	L	S	ERA	HR	K	WHIP	Roto $
1999	NL	Lima, J.	Hou	35	246	21	10	0	3.58	30	187	1.22	$24
Projection		Lima,J.	Hou	33	221	18	9	0	3.29	27	177	1.17	$30
2000	NL	Lima, J.	Hou	33	196	7	16	0	6.65	48	124	1.63	$3
.....Capitalizing on Potential
Year	L	PLAYER	TM	G	INN	W	L	S	ERA	HR	K	WHIP	Roto $
1999	NL	Anderson, B.	Ari	31	130	8	2	1	4.57	18	75	1.32	$9
Projection		Anderson,B.	Ari	32	208	13	8	0	4.28	29	122	1.29	$13
2000	NL	Anderson, B.	Ari	33	213	11	7	0	4.05	38	104	1.24	$14
...Young players with the right stuff
Year	L	PLAYER	TM	G	INN	W	L	S	ERA	HR	K	WHIP	Roto $
1999	NL	Park, C.	LA	33	194	13	11	0	5.24	31	174	1.59	$3
Projection		Park,C.	LA	34	214	17	9	0	3.71	26	201	1.39	$22
2000	NL	Park, C.	LA	34	226	18	10	0	3.27	21	217	1.31	$29
...still has the 20 game potential
Year	L	PLAYER	TM	G	INN	W	L	S	ERA	HR	K	WHIP	Roto $
1999	AL	Helling, R.	Tex	35	219	13	11	0	4.85	41	131	1.43	$6
Projection		Helling,R.	Tex	35	222	16	11	0	4.54	31	141	1.35	$13
2000	AL	Helling, R.	Tex	35	217	16	13	0	4.48	29	146	1.43	$12
.....The Good Young Players
Year	L	PLAYER	TM	G	INN	W	L	S	ERA	HR	K	WHIP	Roto $
1999	NL	Stephenson, G	StL	18	85	6	3	0	4.23	11	59	1.40	$2
Projection		Stephenson,G.	StL	36	170	12	6	0	4.23	22	125	1.30	$12
2000	NL	Stephenson, G	StL	32	200	16	9	0	4.50	31	123	1.36	$14
...more Good Young Players
Year	L	PLAYER	TM	G	INN	W	L	S	ERA	HR	K	WHIP	Roto $
1999	NL	Hernandez, L.	SF	30	199	8	12	0	4.65	23	144	1.52	$3
Projection		Hernandez,L.	SF	33	219	13	8	0	4.31	25	158	1.45	$11
2000	NL	Hernandez, L.	SF	33	240	17	11	0	3.75	22	165	1.36	$22
....ability to value the rookies
Year	L	PLAYER	TM	G	INN	W	L	S	ERA	HR	K	WHIP	Roto $
1999	NL	Ankiel, R.	StL	9	33	0	1	1	3.27	2	39	1.21	$1
Projection		Ankiel,R.	StL	26	172	11	12	0	3.55	17	203	1.27	$18
2000	NL	Ankiel, R.	StL	31	175	11	7	0	3.50	21	194	1.30	$19
....Too Many Innings the prior season - The 20% Rule
Year	L	PLAYER	TM	G	INN	W	L	S	ERA	HR	K	WHIP	Roto $
1999	NL	Millwood, K.	Atl	33	228	18	7	0	2.68	24	205	1.00	$37
Projection		Millwood,K.	Atl	30	205	15	9	0	3.25	22	165	1.18	$26
2000	NL	Millwood, K.	Atl	36	212	10	13	0	4.67	26	168	1.30	$14

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