Table of Contents

(the link above only applies to those who have not purchased the software, and are using the unregistered version of the software which comes with a incomplete set of player stats)

    Using The Cheatsheets (Draft Ranking Lists)

www.Insiderfootball.com 

 Setup Your Team & League Parameters:  (Located on  the Menu Bar League | League Setup )

League: League Info

Teams in your League: If you play in a private league (not a national contest), enter the number of teams (owners) that will be participating in your draft. If you play in a national contest, set this value to 10.

You can also name the teams in your league by selecting the FANTASY TEAMS tab, from here you can also specify which of the teams is yours, and if you play in an auction league: specify your individual team budgets.

Positions

Most leagues require you to draft a minimum amount of players by position, the software will accommodate this. Enter the number of players that you would like to draft at each position, include starters only at each position.  If your league allows "Flex Players", you can select the right combination that fits your league (as an example if your league allows for 2 flex players from any of the RB/QB/WR positions, you would select that combination from the drop down box and enter a 2 in the space immediately proceeding your selection.)

If you do not use a position, such as individual defensive players, then enter a Zero (0) in the appropriate corresponding cell.

Options Draft Style: What style of drafting does your league utilize? There are 3 primary styles of play:

Serpentine Draft Order: Players are drafted in a predetermined order, an order which reverses at the end of each round. (ie. 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,10,9,8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1). If you select this draft style, and plan to use the software at your draft, you should also specify the team order on the FANTASY TEAMS tab. The software will now expect to draft players according to the specified order. In other words, when a player is selected to be drafted (right mouse click on any player name), the software will show the name of the team that is expected to draft at this point (at the top of the popup box). If you trade draft slots or need to make alterations you can undraft the player. You can accomplish this by right clicking on the players name from the ROSTERS section.

Non Sepentine Draft Order:  This is the style of play that is most typical in Public Leagues that do not use a predetermined order to select players, nor do they use an auction $ style of play. Players can be selected/drafted to any team at any point. An example of this style of play would be CDM's Salary Games, where players are selected to a roster based on a salary constraint.

Auction Style Play:  For those who play in a league that uses an auction system, this option will facilitate your needs. Selecting this option will allow the software to value players based on your budget constraints. After this option is selected, a new tab called ADVANCED will appear on the Setup Page. The ADVANCED tab will contain an additional options (see below) for this style of play.

Auction ADVANCED setup:

Dollar Allowed: enter your team budget here.

Minimum Bid Value: If you play in an auction league, enter the Minimum bid amount in this area.

Expected Auction Value (EAV) is an algorithm developed to mimic the non linear decline in auction prices during the span of a draft. Its primary function is to aid those who participate in an auction draft. For more on EAV, click here

Budget Allocation Split: Again for auction leagues, some fantasy GMs like to specify the amount they believe the league will spend on the various positions. We've set the default Splits based on the Typical 10 or 12 team league (1 point for 10 yards rush/receiving, 1 point for 20 yards passing, 6 points for rushing/receiving TD, 4 points for passing TD). The result of this split will shift the EAV$ for each player. If you feel that the EAV results for the players are unreasonable, you can manually change the allocation of the budget (check box) to better quit your taste. The only limitation: the Total must equal 100%.

Max Player $ Value: This area is is being phased out, as the Budget Allocation Split overrides this function. Ignore this section.

Inflation: This is technique is applied to account for players who were “keep or protected” in keeper leagues at values below Fair Market Value ($EAV). In theory this means that the remaining players, especially the top players remaining to be drafted, will increase in auction value. The purpose is to increase the EAV$ of the top players while maintaining the same budget.

As a formula, Draft Inflation is: ((Original League Budget)-(Frozen prices of all kept Players))/((Original League Budget)-(Fair Market Value of kept Players))

Let's assume that the league budget is $2,600 ($260 times 10 teams) and the Frozen Prices paid of let's say 30 players is $300, with a Fair Market Value of $800. Then:

(2600-300)/(2600-800)= 27% Draft Inflation

So in theory, there was a discount of 27% paid for the kept players based on the overall budget. Since our goal is to spend all of the budgeted dollars, this increases the value of the each remaining players (a finite number).

Important: for the Setup changes to take effect you must SAVE before running/viewing the projections or the cheat sheets.

Creating Multiple Teams for different Leagues: 

New Team (Located on  the Menu Bar League | New League )

Switch Team (Located on  the Menu Bar League | Switch League )

Locking out "Keeper players" or players not included in your Draft

If your league allows you to keep players from year to year, or excludes certain players Fantistics Software accommodates these needs. There are 2 methods to account or lock out players from your draft universe:

A) From the League Setup area (under Drafting Order), you can select the league keepers, round by round and/or entering costs. Using this method, you can choose to allow the software to calculate Draft Inflation (see inflation). To assign a keeper player to a team, right click on the Keeper column next to the appropriate team name and round. From here you can select the player using the drop down box provided. This is the recommended way to select keeper or dynasty players.

Although there is another method to block out keeper players from your draft (see B below), it is not recommended unless you do not plan to use the mock draft simulator or the software during your draft.

B) If you only plan to print cheat sheets to carry to your draft and are not concerned with Draft Inflation, then read on. In the Projections section, there is a column labeled "Frozen" under which each player has a check box associated to this category. If you would like to exclude a player or group of players, just "left mouse click" on the check box horizontal to the player name. Important: The players that you select to be excluded from your draft rankings, using the frozen checkbox, will be saved when you close the application and will remain intact even if you download the new projections. (You can sort by the frozen column to easily align and unselect these players.)

If your league allows you to keep players from year to year, or excludes certain players Fantistics Software accommodates these needs. On the projections page, there is a column labeled "Frozen" under which each player has a check box associated to this category. If you would like to exclude a player or group of players, just "left mouse click" on the check box horizontal to the player name. 

Important:The final step is to click "left mouse button" on the Recalc button located on the menu bar  . This action will now exclude that player or group of players from being the draft calculations and void him from the cheatsheets (if he does appear he will have a Zero value associated next to his name). This action also impacts the VAM calculations to further fine tune your draft cheatsheet.

Important: The players that you select to be excluded from your draft rankings will be saved when you close the application and will remain intact even if you download the new projections. 

Important: If you are planning to use the software during your draft, we recommend that you do not use the "Freeze" feature (B above) in the projections screen, but rather assign the players to their respective teams (A above) in the Rosters section.

Scoring Characteristics  

Exhibit B: Bucket Scoring Setup (see highlighted area for explanation)

The examples above are for Passing Yards, you will find these flexible scoring areas in many of the setup screens. Although the categories are different, the setup is similar in concept to the screens above.

Viewing the Fantistics Projections 

Projections  (Located on the Menu Bar File | Projections)

Here is where you will find all of the Fantistics Football Player Projections (registered users only) for the upcoming season. The projections are sorted in Player Name order and can be sorted as per your desire (see Sorting). Each of the positions are located in separate "sheets", viewable by clicking (left mouse button) on the tabs located in the top section corner of the screen.  These projections are updated throughout the preseason for registered users, so be sure to check for web updates on a frequent basis (see Web Update).

Sorting the Fantistics Projections 

Sorting

Sorting the projections by your desirable criteria can be done in two ways. The first way is by clicking on one the sort buttons located on the top on the projections page.  The second way  is to click "left mouse button" on the 1st cell of the category you are interested in. This method can also accommodate multiple category sort requests. For instance if you want to sort by Rushing Yards on the RunningBack page,  click "left mouse button" on the (Rush) cell.

Updating your Fantistics Preseason Projections (Must be online)

Web Update (Located on the Menu Bar OnLine | Web Update )

Our goal is to not only provide you with the best projections but also provide you with the most up to date fantasy projections found anywhere! As we get closer to the season you will find that the fantasy projections are updated on a daily basis. Early projections may change considerably for younger players as their playing time may be dependant on the events of training camps. We recommend that you use our web update feature before your draft (if you are not a registered user and would like to become eligible for the updated projections, click here.)

Open up the Web Update popup window and enter your Fantistics Football ID and password, and click the check box (which will save your ID and password for future uses). Now click on the "Check for Update" button (you must be connected to the internet), if a new version of the projections database exists, you will be notified in the pop up window, and the software will being to update. After the software downloads (see progress bar on the screen)  it's a good idea to close all the windows that are open within the program.

As a registered user, you can find the latest date of the database that you are using by viewing the lower left hand corner of the program.

Important: You must enter your ID and Password that was assigned by you when you purchased the Fantistics Football package, this is the only way to receive the latest version of the projections. If you forgot/lost your ID & password, click here to enter your email into our automated password system, it will be sent to you via email (you must be connected to the internet to use this option).

Changing and Saving the Fantistics Projections

Once the changes are complete, you can select the "Save" button at the top of the screen, or you will be prompted to save before you exit.

To revert back to the Fantistics Values, right click the mouse button over the highlighted row.

Important: Your changes will remain saved in the future as well, this will hold true even through Projections Updates made through the software "Web Update" interface.

See below (Player Marking Lists) for details

The Strenght of Schedule Grid or Opposition Matchup Matrix rates the quality of the team defenses that our fantasy players are starting against. Higher ratings (rating range from 2 lowest - 10 highest), indicates an increased probability that the player will have a big week and conversely, the lower the number, the lower the expectations. We found that there is a significant correlation in fantasy points produced (in the positions of RB/QB/WR) based on the opposition's passing/rushing yards allowed. Tight Ends & Kickers have a smaller correlation. The Strength of Schedule Grid can be found in the Top File Menu under Schedule.

Most projections services arbitrarily assign fantasy point values to players. At Fantistics we project each game outcome based on both the strength of the player and the opposition that they will be facing each week. This weekly scoring grid is based on your scoring setup. Using this grid you will be able to see which players face an easy or tough week, which should aid you in your selection process of draft day. As an example of how to use this grid, you may not want to select 2 runningbacks that have an extremely unfavorable playoff week...as it may limit your chances to win. Do consider however that the expectations will change during the season as the opposition team defense may be stronger or weaker than expected coming into the season. The Weekly Point Display can be found in the Top File Menu under Schedule.

Draft Section: Rosters

Player Roster

League Draft Roster (Grid of Fantasy Teams)- Select a player to the rosters grid in one of the following manners: From any of the following pages/tabs (Projections, Top 100 VAM, or Search Pages) you can right mouse click a player to a team.

Depending on your League Setup (see Setting your Team & League Parameters), you can select players to a roster in:

• Draft Order (Serpentine Setup) - The current draft slot team will be listed at the top of the popup window (right mouse click on a player's name)
• Random Selection (Non-Serpentine Setup) - Select a player to any fantasy team in no particular order (right mouse click on a player's name)
• Auction Style -  For those who play in a league that uses an auction system, after you select a player to a team, another popup should appear with an option to enter a auction value. If the option to enter an auction value does not appear, you can activate this option on by selecting the File|Settings|View Popup to Specify Cost Option located in the toolbar at the top of the program.

As players are selected their names as well as their statistics will be crossed out or removed from the viewable player universe (you can choose which option from within the Setup area on the League Info page)

You have the ability to choose the columns that you would like to see during your draft on the rosters page. You can select the columns (VAM, Fantasy Points, ) you would like to see in the League Draft Roster (see below).

Select the columns that you would like to see during your draft (Display Columns).  Select from any of the following columns (VAM, Bye Week, Cost, Fantasy Points, Cost, Bye Weeks, or CDM Fantasy Game Salaries) that you would like to see on the League Draft Roster (see below).

Printable Report :After your draft is complete you can print your league draft.

** When you begin propagating the rosters section, please be aware that it will change the Projections as well as the cheat sheet pages as players are selected to various teams and are no longer available in the player universe.

***When you are ready to draft your team, be very sure that you have the correct setup prior to selecting players, as saving any changes in the setup section can sometimes clear the rosters.

#Drafted: The number of players selected, in brackets are the reserves.

#Needed: The number of players needed, in brackets are the reserves.

FP: Total Fantasy Points for each team

Player Search, Player Lists, & Projections Filter

If you are not concerned with seeing projections on the approximate 900 players contained within our player universe you can filter based on your set minimum of Passing, Rushing, or Receiving Yards.

We have defined 6 lists and have designated icons that can be used on the player projections pages, which can be used as an aid in your selection of players on draft day.  You can select a player to a list by right mouse clicking on the players name, and then selecting any of the category options at the bottom of the popup window.

Wish List: Denote the players that you would like to have or draft.

Injury Prone: Denote the players that are injured or have had an injury history in the recent past that can be an issue. The software database is shipped out with a list (which is not all inclusive) of players who we believe fit into this category. You are free to change this list (click on the player name and remove the check box).

Avoid: Denote the players that you are not interested in.

Rookie:  Denotes the players that are rookies. These players have been already denoted from the factory.

Higher than Consensus: Denote the players that you feel are higher than consensus among the fantasy football community. For example, if believe that we are too high on in our projections on Frank Gore, you can flag him as such.

Lower than Consensus: Denote the players that you feel are lower than consensus among the fantasy football community. For example, if believe that we are too low on in our projections on Troy Brown, you can flag him as such.

Mock Draft Module  Practice your drafting Skills

Get your Mock on...this module is undoubtedly the most addicting fantasy tools we've ever created! For the first time fantasy GMs can simulate their fantasy draft before draft day using their specific scoring rules. More importantly you'll be able select players at your own pace, instantly seeing the scoring ramifications of the decisions you make, test the Fantistics Draft Strategy (VAM) and valuations (FP - Fantasy Points), while honing your drafting skills....and you won't have to spend 3 hours doing it (pause your draft at any time or just walk away).

The new Mock Draft module, within the Fantistics Player Projections program, allows fantasy GMs to practice drafting skills using our recommended VAM draft strategy. The opponents' (automated computer selectors) will be using ADP. ADP or Average Draft Position represents an accumulation of fantasy drafts throughout the fantasy football community. We collect this information every week during training camps and update ADP accordingly. The Mock Draft module also allows us to use the "true" VAM draft strategy, were we recommend switching to player valuation (FP - Fantasy Points) after the first 90-100 selections of your draft. With this mock draft feature you are free to decide when you would like to switch from the VAM strategy or not switch (if you choose.)

Other draft strategy options you can select as your strategy include Fantasy Points (if fantasy points is selected in Setup area) or ADP (In most cases you will experience that our VAM strategy produces the most optimal results.)

Options include 1. Drafting starting positions before reserves (recommended), and 2. Having the program stop before your selection (allowing you to make selections, instead of the selected automated strategy).

We recommend that you open the Rosters tab and the Draft Summary tab, prior to running your mock draft. Having these windows open will allow you to toggle between the screens, allowing you to see how your team is shaping up verses your opponents, and more importantly: how your team is accumulating fantasy points or Roto points verses the competition (see Draft Summary).

If you have selected Keeper players from within the Setup | Draft Order area, then these keepers will not be removed when you clear the mock draft results from the Mock Draft area. The only way to clear these keepers is from the Setup | Draft Order area.

Auction Mock Draft Simulation:

Although VAM is the definitive draft methodology recommended for Serpentine/non auction drafts, Auction drafts are heavily influenced by the difference between the actual auction price and the expected auction value.  Obviously, there is no way to capture this through a simulation. However, budget allocation strategies can be simulated.” VAM Budget” allows you to test different spending methods for your team while adhering to the league budget. If for example you would like to avoid a high/low  spending strategy, you can set the simulation to draft the 12^th listed player according to VAM for the first 80 or so players. This will allow your team to take a more balanced approach.

1. >You will need to have already joined a Yahoo League before a link can be established. Do not connect through the software until 60 minutes or less prior to the draft.

2. >We recommend that you join a random league before your draft to test out the connection.

3. >If you are playing in a custom league, you will need to setup your league Scoring after the link is established. You SHOULD NOT ENTER IN KEEPER PLAYERS IN THE SOFTWARE, as Yahoo will transfer those players to the software. You should not exit out of the software until the league draft is over to avoid Yahoo resetting your setup.

4. >Although the Draft order may appear incorrect, the players will draft in order and you can ignore the number of reserve players

5. >You will not have to enter anything in the Software after the link is established and the draft starts. All you need to do is enter in your picks through the Yahoo Draft Interface (on Yahoo website).

6. >We highly recommend that you practice how the software links with Yahoo by testing it out in any public (not mock) league which you can find here

Our suggested draft order based on your league scoring for the top 100 players sorted by VAM.

Players can be selected directly from the Draft Advisor list and placed on a roster (either by using the right mouse button or drop and dragging). As players are selected the next best available players move up the list.

VAM: We pride ourselves with not necessarily picking the right guy, but with picking the right strategy. After we compute our projections for the upcoming season, the software derives the VAM ranking list using mathematical means to produce the best outcome. Not only does the software consider position scarcity (which is specific to you league and scoring), but it also considers the probability of predictability related to each position (see Draft Research). While the fantasy community has caught up with the basic understanding of the position scarcity theory (RBs ranked highly), they haven't quantified it, which continues to leave there fate based on luck. Our draft strategy is predicated on the theory of probability and given enough of a sample size, the theory flat out kicks butt. Consider the theory behind one of the riches gold mines in America: the Gambling Casinos. Sure once and a while, someone comes out winning, but given enough action, the Casinos win overall...the Theory of Probability. That's not to say that you will not finish the season with a uncompetitive team, even if the theory was 99% valid, there is always a chance that the number of players selected (sample size) was not large enough and you are unfortunate enough to draft all the guys that have a disappointing or injury plagued seasons...but again, using the strategy the odds are in your favor...and that really is the best anyone can hope for.  Stick with the VAM ranking list through the first 80-100 selections of your draft, if you play in a conventional league, ignore the Kickers, Tight Ends and Defenses until the later rounds. Using the VAM ranking you'll likely miss out on a few of the upper end Wide Receivers (as some may select these guys too early in your draft), but that's ok and part of the strategy, as receivers have a poor correlation of predictability and many mid level receivers step up year after year. Additionally unheralded Wide Receivers, Tight Ends, Kickers, and Defenses are almost always available during the season in the free agent market (and you'll know about these guys from us). How often do quality running backs and quarterbacks who went undrafted produce big numbers? Very infrequently...unless an injury happens to one of the starters. If you have open reserve slots, make sure that they are filled up with running backs and maybe a quarterback or two...as you can never have enough of these high commodity guys.

Draft Advisory  Remaining Players

The goal of the Draft Advisory section is to allow the astute GM to make informed decisions throughout his/her draft. Although the primary drafting tool is the Top 100 VAM section (especially through the top 80-100 picks), the Draft Advisor gives a fantasy GM the ability to easily quantify the difference (based on projected Fantasy Points) among the remaining players at each position. Using this screen, we can discern between selecting players who are bunched together at a position verses those players at other positions who still offer relative value.

As an example, lets say we're in the 7th round  (most of the top 100 VAM players are likely off the board) and we're trying to decide if it's a good time to select a Tight End over a Wide Receiver. The top Wide Receivers on the board are  Lee Evans, Reggie Brown, Terry Glenn, Jerry Porter, Laveranues Coles. The difference in our projected fantasy points (based on your league scoring) between the best and worst of these 5 is only 8 points. The difference between Tight End, Antonio Gates and the next best player at his position is 21 points. At this point the GM should select Antonio Gates, as there is a good chance that there will be an equal quality WR available in the next round.

Draft Advisory Player Tiers

Throughout the projections software you'll see player names (rows) highlighted. The darker the color hue, the more valuable the player. This color scheme is based on how the player ranks (based on your scoring system) verses other players at his position. The those players within the top 10% of Fantasy Points (at his position) have the darkest hue. Tier 2 11-25%, Tier 3 26-40, Tier 4 41-55, Tier 5 56-75, and Tier 6 76-100.

The purpose of the Tier Summary screen located within the Draft Advisor section is to quantify the players within each tier to give you a gauge of quality remaining at each position during the draft. Columns include the number of players at tier (by position selected), the number of these players Selected during your draft, the Remaining players at this tier, the Average Fantasy Points among the players within this tier (pre draft), and their Average VAM.

Average Draft Position (ADP) - Starting this season, we are going to update the projections software throughout the preseason with a new indicator called Average Draft Position (ADP). ADP will represent an accumulation of drafts throughout the fantasy football community. The average draft slot where the NFL players are selected will then be converted to your specific league setting. Thus if your league for instance has 8 teams, the NFL player drafted 9th nationally would appear as 2.01 in your software (2.01 represents 1st slot of the second round). 

Since disadvantaged fantasy football GMs use generic cheat sheets, it's an advantage to not only have rankings that are tailored to your league, but also to know the sentiment of the general fantasy community. Using this new tool you'll be able to ascertain the possible mindset of those around you. One possible use of ADP is delaying the drafting of a player who we hold in higher esteem until a later round. You can view the cheatsheet with their ADP ranking by selecting Setup|Edit League Settings|Cheatsheet Display Option: ADP

Expected Auction Value (EAV) is an algorithm developed to mimic the non linear decline in auction prices during the span of a fantasy draft. Its primary function is to aid those who participate in an auction draft.

Draft Section: Draft Summary

Detailed Draft Totals also showing the accumulated team totals for your leagues scoring categories.

The Roto Column/Section is designed for leagues where player stats are combined and compared verses other team owners and point values are given according to a ranking system.

Weekly Team Point Display

Using The Cheatsheets (Draft Ranking Lists)

 CheatSheets (Located on the Menu Bar Reporting | Cheatsheets)

The Cheatsheets or Draft Rankings lists are the pages that many of you will be using on your drafting day. The player names are organized by their primary expected position for the upcoming season. 

To the left of the players name is a ranking by position, to the immediate right is his current team followed by the player's off week (Bye week, ie.  B5 = Week 5) and the computed fantasy point  value according to your setup parameters. 

The last column of the cheatsheet is a ranking according to our recommended draft strategy VAM, (click here for more on VAM).

Lastly you will notice that some players are Zeroed out the cheatsheet, this does not mean that they will not produce any value, it just means that they will not likely be drafted based on your league parameters that you have setup (if you have a limited number of roster spots the players above these guys will get drafted first, making it unlikely that they will be drafted).

 Printing The Cheatsheets (or the projections)

 Printing (Located on the Menu Bar File | Print )

Printing the Cheatsheets is simple All that is necessary is for you to have the cheatsheets window active, and then clicking the print button located on the far left of the tool bar (you will of course also need a connected printer).

Some may also choose to print the projections, which be warned may be as long as 20-25 pages. To print the projections, just have the projections window active "left button mouse" click.

If you have a color printer, the cheatsheet will print a color coded cheat sheet. This color coding is based on player tiers. See Draft Advisory Player Tiers for more information on how the tiers work.

Export the Cheat-sheets to Excel

Exporting the cheat sheets to excel allows for the manipulation of the Format / Font / Print Size / ETC. To accomplish this, select the Cheat sheet page as the active page. Then from the Top Menu bar, select File | Export to Excel. You can also Export the Rosters to Excel, by first selecting to view the rosters, then selecting the print icon.

Understanding the Intelligence Data in the top section of the Projections Page

The Graphical Charts: Roll over a player stat and see his 4 year and 2006 2nd half history and projection in the upper left hand corner of the projections screen. These graphic charts give you an easy view of how the player compares against his peers (green bars), as their averages are also charted (based on the number of starters for each team at each position). If you use the program during your draft, deciding between players could be as easy as a roll of the mouse. Seeing an established player's key categories on a decline or rise could be as powerful as any statistical indicator.  Use these charts as an indication tool when evaluating the risk of a player. The VAM Chart measures the value of a player when compared to the overall value of all the player positions. So even though a player, such as a kicker, is atop in his position, his overall value may be below the VAM baseline. (Tip: To view different player history use the tab or the mouse to select new players in the projections section)

Exporting The Projections to Excel (available after August 1st)

 Exporting (Located on the Menu Bar Tools | Export )

After you select Export, Excel will be loaded and the projections will appear separated by positions in the worksheet.

Uploading your fantasy teams to the Online Player Tracker

 Upload to Player Tracker (Located on the Menu Bar Online | Upload My Team )

After you select upload, you can sign into the member area and follow your team news, stats and weekly projections online.

Good Luck in your Draft!

  The Fantistics Projections (Written by Fantistics Statistician Anthony A. Perri)

As Football Fanatics, we take our fantasy games very seriously here at Fantistics. Our publisher is a Statistician who has be computing fantasy projections and valuation models for over 15 years. Did you realize that the vast majority of National Contest winners, are actuaries or accountants? Yes, the guys with the glasses and pen sleeves in their shirts!...incidentally quite a few of them are returning Fantistics subscribers. 

Fantasy Football (along with the other sports) is both a knowledge and a numbers (statistics) game. He who solves the "best fit" formula on draft day usually takes the prize, or is at least competitive throughout the season....and that's our goal, to make you competitive or give you that extra edge that brings you over the top.      

Our 50+ years of player data allows us to not only produce respectable projections year in and year out, but it also allows you to dispel certain myths that have lead many fantasy managers astray. In fantasy sports it's not the quantity of information, it's the quality that counts. 

Did you realize that on average 25% of the Top Twenty Quarterbacks, were within 20% of their previous season fantasy stats? ...and contrary to popular belief, 80% of the top 10 kickers are within 30% of their previous season stats.  

The Fantistics draft day strategy has been described as the definitive concept to winning on draft day. Value Above Mean (VAM)  is a computation that measures a players' fantasy worth versus others at their respective position/s. In other words, what we do is take the average fantasy values for the typical number of fantasy starters at each position. This average serves as the standard that we compare all others at that particular position by. To further the effectiveness of this concept, based on our research, we assign probabilities based on the predictability of the position categories. In a perfect world, we compared this strategy against "simulation owners" who were set to draft according to total fantasy points (TFP), and found VAM to be  22-30% more effective tool than just drafting by total projected points. VAM is most effective during the early rounds of the draft as evidenced by the graph below. (We ran 1,000 simulations, basing the incremental gain on the VAM strategy versus employing a straight points drafting methodology through each draft pick.)

We have successfully used and recommended this statistical concept (VAM) for over five years. In 1998, we finally tested the concept using a statistical software package (MATLAB), and found it to be the best overall drafting and trading strategy. 

The concept of VAM was later upgraded to assign a probability to each position, which has further fine tuned the expected results.

Fantistics is credited as being the first group to apply the relative value concept (our concept of VAM) to fantasy sports drafting. 

After the top 80-90 players are selected, you should start considering your needs and the total projected points. As you can see from the chart above, the incremental gain starts to diminish rapidly at this point.

Another point to consider is that VAM would work perfectly if we lived in a vacuum and our projected points turned out to be 100% accurate...of course we don't and they're not going to be. So before you start to use our sortable VAM rankings and cheat sheets, there are a few tips in our subscriber section that will interest you.

Visit the membership area for more Draft Day tools and year long analysis: http://www.fantistics.com/football00/

Insiderfootball.com

Copyright 2019 Fantistics Technologies, Inc.  All rights reserved.

All information within the Fantistics Technologies Website and its Software are the property of Fantistics Technologies, Inc. By  accessing  this information, the  online user warrants that he/she shall not reproduce,  publish,  broadcast,  sell, retransmit, or in any  way commercially exploit any  information  obtained thru the  Fantistics Technologies Online or software unless expressly authorized in writing by Fantistics Technologies, Inc

.