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Every league has
them: the guy who walks into a fantasy draft with a ranking
list from their favorite magazine....since most of these
publications go into production in December, there's a good chance
that he'll nominate (P) Kevin Tapani who retired last month. Sure
you're probably going to chuckle, but do you really have what it
takes to dominate on draft day? You probably would if you did not
have a job and any personal life...but that's not very
practical...here's where we come in.
There are 3 essential components
on draft day that are absolutely necessary to compete in an
advanced league, and/or dominate in newly formed leagues:
1. Projections coming
from a reputable source, a group with with a complete
understanding of statistical precedence, its forecasting impact, and
the ability to spot talent. Most importantly, projections that cover
more than 5 categories.
2. Projections that are
updated daily throughout the entire month of March....roles change
constantly during spring training.
3. A valuation model
that considers your league characteristics, and most importantly
your league scoring! Almost everyone posts rankings according to a
basic 5x5 category scoring (AVG,
HR, R, RBI, SB - W, S, ERA, WHIP, K),
but that doesn't fit everyone, how about those that play in a fantasy
points league (like many of the national contests)...even in the
typical 5x5 scoring leagues, valuations and rankings can be WILDLY
different depending on how many teams are in your league, how many
positions are drafted, NL/AL or single leagues, any keeper players,
dollar allowed, etc...(see the article below on the VAM drafting
strategy)
Well you probably guessed it....this is why we
developed a software package that creates customized
rankings & dollar values (if applicable) based on your specific needs.
It's not a new software concept, loyal fantistics members have been enjoying
these privileges over the past few seasons in an Excel spreadsheet program
that we developed. This season we have re-engineered the concept into a
Windows compatible program that can run on everyone's PC (all you need is
Windows 95 or above) and it is extremely user friendly. You don't need
to be a computer geek to run this program. With our step by step instructions
you can download, install, setup your league parameters, and produce
customized 2002 draft rankings/values in less than 30 minutes over a
standard internet connection! You will "walk" into your draft
(whether on line or in person) with a "cheatsheet" and the
confidence that you have everything you need to know. Sure, you'll have
favorites and may not agree with all our projections, but the valuation
methodology will give you a very solid foundation.
Still more: We are
much more than just draft day projections, during the year we mail out daily
email player progress and analysis reports every day of the baseball season.
That's 180+ days that you'll hear from our staff of Fantasy Experts in your
inbox. Tell us what players are on your team and we'll also track their news
stories and key fantasy stats on one convenient web page. Need the lowdown on
new rookies or players with new found playing time...we do that also....need
to know who should be traded early in the season or picked up...we do that as
well...and how about 14 day pitching rotations that are the most accurate
you'll find anywhere? Even if you are not interested in downloading our
software (apologies to the Macintosh folks), the projections and dollar
values are also posted in a database on the website, which is completely sort-able
by over 30 categories. In fact all of the information is posted on the
website, which is accessible from any computer with an internet connection.
Proudly, we have aided
thousands of Fantasy Champions, and over 75% of this year's members will be
loyal subscribers, many have been with us since our inception in 1999.
This is a testament of our commitment to you. So what are you waiting for? The
software is free,
download it, play around with it. When you're ready to subscribe
you'll get so much more than just the 2002 projections...
Below is an excerpt on our draft
day strategy:
On Draft Day,
it's all about "VAM"!
VAM..Value Above Mean-
It's difficult to say that any one
concept is fully encompassing, but when it comes to Fantasy Baseball
Drafting, the
Fantistics' theory of Value Above Mean (VAM), is the definitive concept
to winning on draft day.
VAM: Value Above Mean (or
Average) is a computation that measures a players' fantasy worth versus others at
their respective position/s. What we do is take the average fantasy values
for the typical number of fantasy starters at each position. This average serves as the
standard that we compare all others at that particular position by. In a perfect world, we
compared this strategy against "simulation owners" who were set to draft
according to total fantasy production (TFP), and found VAM to be 20-30%
more effective tool than just drafting by total projected
production or Draft $ value. VAM is
most effective in the early rounds of the draft as evidenced by the graph below.
(We ran 1,000 simulations, basing the incremental gain on the VAM strategy versus
employing a straight points drafting methodology through each draft pick.)
We have successfully used and recommended this
statistical concept (VAM) for over four years. In 1998, we
developed the concept
using a statistical software package (MATLAB),
and found it to be the best overall drafting and trading strategy.
We have termed it as "an essential ingredient to winning a fantasy
baseball
league," aside from a subscription to Fantistics, of course!
The reason why VAM
is so effective is due to a theory called "positional value",
or "position scarcity".
The positional value system works because it values players in
relation to their positional peers. In recent seasons, some
fantasy folks have reflected the position scarcity concept in
their bidding or valuations without the numerical algorithm that we
have quantified. Who can forget John Hunt's 2000 Baseball Weekly
article on the "$50 Pedro Martinez bid", it was a brilliant
move and opened some eyes to the true valuation of quality players at
weak positions. A then healthy Pedro was just so dominating in so many
major Rotisserie categories that he just dwarfed the average pitcher
available from the AL, and in many respects (outside of his current
health concerns) still does. Would Martinez have held as much clout if
the average draft-able pitcher was the equivalent of a "Joe
Mays"? Ask
yourself this question, what is the drop-off from the best to the
worst player that will be selected at each position in your draft? If
your going from "Pedro Martinez" to "Ryan Rupe" at the pitcher's position,
and from "Todd Helton" to "Brad Fullmer"...I'd take my chances with
drafting the bottom of the barrel 1st Baseman than the rear in the
pitching department. Couple this with the fact that bargains exist late
in the draft, and you understand the importance of drafting quality
players at notoriously weak positions. Hence this is
the fundamental theory behind the VAM (Value Above Mean) concept. You
want to elevate the value the top performers which come from the
weakest positions, according to your draft parameters. This is the
principal behind our draft software. Our algorithm will produce a
value (a rank per se) for each player based on your league criteria.
It's really relative to your league parameters, if you league drafts a
high number of required outfielders for example, its quite possible
that outfielders will be in demand, creating a righteous artificial
increase in their absolute value.
More
on the VAM Concept
Depending on your league
setup, subscribers who use our
projections model database, will see the scarcity of quality
points at these positions (Catchers, Second Basemen, Shortstops,
& Pitchers). If you're in a league that sets rosters according
to position (and most are), then you have to value the incremental
gain by stars (like Jason Kendall C, Alex Rodriguez SS, Jeff Kent
2B, & Pedro Martinez P) at a higher premium, since the average
player at these positions are worth much less in general than a
typical player (in fantasy terms), and some of these players are
just so much better than the others at their position. For
instance the average catchers' production is approximately 35%
less (assuming 200 drafted batters) than that of the average
fantasy batter. In simple
terms why pay $30 for Ken Griffey (OF) when you can purchase Mike
Piazza for $30. Their fantasy statistics will be comparably
balanced, but Piazza
will outperform the typical catcher by 60%, while Griffey will
only outperform the typical outfielder by 15%. Thus you capture
that incremental gain of 45%…doing this over and over again you
can see how the odds stack up in your favor. Thus even if the
projections are off, the incremental gains from your
draft strategy (VAM) will certainly aid you in the overall makeup
of your team.
After the top 80-90 players are
selected (if you play in a typical 12 team 14H/9P 5x5 league), you
should start considering your positional and specific category needs. As you can see from
the chart above, the incremental gain starts to diminish rapidly at this point.
The software will guide you through the positive VAM players based on
your league parameters and
then its time to "switch off" and consider the straight dollar values and
positional needs.
Another point to consider is that VAM would
work perfectly if we lived in a vacuum and our projected points turned out to be 100%
accurate...of course we don't and they're not going to be.
Thus you still need to stay on top of it and make pick the right
pickups/ roster moves during the season (we'll help you here as
well).
If you decide to use the
traditional drafting method, you certainly can, and our databases will allow you to sort
by "fantasy/roto $", and the "ranking sort" is based on the
"fantasy/roto $" method. If you decide to follow our
recommended methodology then sort by
VAM in the 2002 Draft Database, or use the last column in our
Software "Cheat Sheets" during the early portion of your
draft.....You will be rewarded handsomely in the end!
(end of excerpt)
Fantistics Insider
baseball is an exclusive provider of the VAM theory and VAM draft
day cheatsheets. For more information on the fantistics draft day
package, click here, and when
your ready you can customize your Draft Player
Rankings.
Written by Fantistics Publisher &
Statistician :Anthony A. Perri
JOIN TODAY!
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providing you with injury news, player developments, and
other insight from contributing sources around the country.
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throughout the season on overachieving and underachieving
fantasy players.
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Stats: We power an online database that is
fully sortable by league, position, and 18 different player
production categories, including in-season fantasy player
values.
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Tracker: Along
with our full coverage of all the player news, we'll track
your team player news' stories on one convenient page.
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Reports: gain
insight into player issues & stats not discussed/
disclosed on any other site, including our expert rookie
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